It’s only Wednesday morning and it’s already been a crazy week. Like many of you (I would assume), I spent the better part of Monday digesting the news regarding Google announcing its intention to buy Motorola. Since the news came out, I can’t tell you how many people have called or emailed me to ask me my opinion on the deal, and more importantly its potential impact on the mobile landscape.
- So is RIM dead?
- Is Microsoft going to buy Nokia?
- What’s up with HTC and Samsung? Do you really believe they are happy with this deal?
If you don’t mind, I’d like to share with you an “executive summary” of what my responses have been….along with a little bit of the rationale behind them. Here’s the net net:
- With every earthquake, there are aftershocks. Google’s announcement was clearly a major shift in the tectonic plates of mobility. The problem is, we don’t know when (or how large) the aftershocks will be. Heck, sometimes the aftershocks can be almost as large as the original shift. Sometimes they happen within hours of the first shock…and sometimes they can take months. Hopefully there won’t be a tsunami with it.
- What we do know is that this deal was about IP. The companies involved are not playing checkers. They are playing Vulcan Chess! (Check out the link if you don’t know what I am talking about) This is an incredibly complex game with many different pieces on the chess board(s).
Here’s the rationale:
- Does Microsoft need to buy Nokia now? Not if Point #4 in this press release covers all their patents.
- Are Samsung, HTC and LG as enthusiastic about this deal as they sound? Heck no.
- Does this mean they’re going to shift more towards Windows Phone 7? Who knows.
- Who’s interested in buying RIM? I’m not convinced they need to be bought out.
- Is Google now truly protected from an IP perspective? They bought their way into a lawsuit from Microsoft.
- What about the 3LM assets? What about them?
- Who is going to buy who next? If I knew, I wouldn’t tell you.
See where I am going with this? There are simply way too many moving parts to be intelligently speculating from the sidelines. Sure, it might be a fun intellectual exercise, but is it accretive? Probably not. Me personally, I am going to keep on focusing on my tasks at hand, while keeping my ear to the ground. I may even invest in an earthquake early warning system.